 Wysłany: Pon 2:31, 18 Paź 2010 Temat postu: I love sports… |
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| Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta at Philly � 3 (42.5): This might be one of the most interesting games of the weekend - - if Michael Vick is the starting QB for the Eagles. And, I have to believe that he is going to do whatever he can to make it to the field in that capacity against his old team/teammates on Sunday. If he is out of the game � or the emergency QB � the focus for the game is reduced a bit, but it still could be interesting. Atlanta has the kind of running attack that can/will give the Eagles’ defense problems. If that unit has to worry a lot about stopping a run game, then Matt Ryan can do some damage against the secondary. The Atlanta defense should acquit itself well against the Eagles’ offense if Kolb is the QB because they can focus on stopping the run first and dare Kolb to beat them. Based on the assumption that Kevin Kolb will be the starting QB, I like the Falcons with the points. I like the game Over no matter which Eagles’ QB takes the field. Here is a question to ponder: Did the Chiefs come back to Earth with a thud last week? The Chiefs scored no TDs against a Colt defense that has been well and properly characterized as sub-standard while losing their first game of the year by a score of 19-9. When your defense holds Peyton Manning & Co. to less than 20 points, you really ought to win that game. Or, is there a flaw in the Houston offense that the Giants exposed for the rest of the league to see? Imagine a Super Bowl between the Bears and either the Ravens or the Steelers. I think you would have to take the Under in that game. The Bears defense has to be pretty good because they won a game last week where QB, Todd Collins, completed only 6 passes for 32 yards and he threw 4 INTs. His QB rating was 6.2. It is far too much trouble to go and look this up, but that just has to be the lowest QB rating for a starting QB who played most of the game where his team won the game. Plus ?a change,cheap nfl jerseys, plus c’est la même chose. I liked the Chiefs +9 against the Colts. The Chiefs lost by 10. I liked the Bengals to win and cover 6.5 points against the Bucs. The Bucs won outright. I liked the Broncos +7 against the Ravens. Did not happen. I liked the Texans to cover 3 points against the Giants. The Giants won outright and it was a comfortable win. Oakland at SF � 6.5 (41): This is the Bay Area Battle, the Blue Collar/White Collar Bowl, the … Hey, I’m trying to be interested in this game and it’s difficult since I do not live in the Bay area. Neither of these teams excites me. I find them interesting only in the sense that both can put out a very solid performance once in a while but neither can seem to do that two weeks out of three. It looks as if Jason Campbell will be back at QB for the Raiders this week with Bruce Gradkowski nursing a sore shoulder [not a good injury in the Al Davis-preferred vertical passing offense.] If Campbell is hurt, the Raiders need to turn to Kyle Boller - - and there is no way to spin that to make it look good. Meanwhile, the Niners will try to find a way to get a decent game out of their QB position by playing Alex Smith and threatening him with a trip to the bench in favor of David Carr. [For Niner fans, that is sort of like asking if you would prefer to go on a double date with Roseanne Barr or Nancy Grace.] Pretending to be able to forecast how both of these enigmatic teams will play next week, let me say that the game will be a defensive struggle and will stay Under. Actually, I do not think you should wager on this game and I do not think you should watch this game even if you are in the Bay Area. Remember, the San Francisco Giants are in the NL Championship Series in MLB and that ought to be far more engrossing than this dog of a game. It means: The more things change, the more they remain the same thing. Cleveland Browns’ fans should be able to relate to that because last week Jake Delhomme was pressed back into action and he threw a “Pick Six” to the Falcons secondary. Plus ?a change… I liked the Cowboys to cover 6.5 points against the Titans. The Cowboys lost outright. There is a saying in French: The San Diego Chargers have a 2-3 record to start the 2010 season. That should come as a surprise to no one in the Chargers’ organization since this is the fourth consecutive year the team has been 2-3 after 5 games. This year, there is something just a bit different; the Chargers’ special teams are an embarrassment. They lost to the Chiefs partly on the basis of a punt returned for a TD. They lost to the Seahawks giving up 2 kickoff returns for TDs. They lost last week to the Raiders surrendering 2 blocked punts (producing 9 points and setting up 3 more). In case you had not heard this one of the ten bazillion times an ESPN talking head mentioned it, last week was the first time the Raiders have beaten the Chargers in the last 14 times they have played. Here is an item from Greg Cote in the Miami Herald: I liked the Chargers to cover 6 points against the Raiders. The Chargers lost outright. Oh, the Chargers did make a move this week. They put Shawne Merriman on the IR list with a “minor injury designation” meaning as soon as he is healthy they have to release him. Merriman had a great year or two about 5 seasons ago. Since then he has been injury prone and we have not seen much of his “lights out sack dance” - - except when other teams do it to mock the Chargers. Jets � 3 at Denver (41.5): The Broncos have not been able to run the ball against anyone this year so I cannot see how they will find a way to do that against a Jets’ defense that stops the run well. I would not be surprised to see that the Broncos threw the ball 55 times in this game. The Jets had a short week and then they have to travel 2 time zones to play this game; I think lots of that is reflected in the low spread for this game. I expect a low-scoring game and so I’ll take the Broncos with the points here. I also like this game to stay Under. I liked the Browns +3 against the Falcons. That did not work. I liked the Jags over the Bills as a pick ’em game. The Jags won. Dallas at Minnesota � 1.5 (44.5): As noted above, you can make a case that either of these teams is the biggest underachiever in the league for the 2010 season to date. Rarely can you point to a game in the second week of October as a “must-win”/”season changing” game, but this game may be just that for both of these teams. The Cowboys and the Vikings entered the season thinking they had a realistic shot to play in the Super Bowl as the NFC representative; the Cowboys also carried the hopes and aspirations of Jerry Jones to have his team be the first team to play a “home game” in the Super Bowl. When they toss the coin for this game, both teams will be 1-3; given how few ties there are in the NFL anymore, the likelihood is that one of these teams will be 1-4 by Sunday night. No team that started 1-4 has ever won the Super Bowl; only the Pats in 2001 have ever started a season at 2-3 and come on to win a Super Bowl. The Vikes’ trade for Randy Moss is an “all-in wager”. Moss is not signed beyond this year; neither is Brett Favre; by the way, neither is Sidney Rice when/if he returns to health this season; the Vikes are shooting for the moon here. The Vikings had a short week to prepare for this game; but at least, they are at home. The Cowboys had two weeks to prepare for the Titans last week and came out playing the same kind of sloppy stupid football they have been playing since August. I know this is a heretical statement in Dallas, but I am beginning to think that Tony Romo has peaked as a QB. I know this is a heretical statement in many parts of America - - and anywhere within the confines of ESPN property - - but I think Brett Favre is quickly accelerating on the downslope of his career. I make this a venue call; I’ll take the Vikes to win and cover here. And I wonder if after the Cowboys go down in flames once again here Jerry Jones’ grimace will be sufficiently intense to shatter his reconstructed face… Here are two related questions? Is the Giants’ defense really good enough to hold the Texans to only 11 first downs in a game? I liked the Niners � 3.5 over the Eagles. The Eagles won outright. I liked the Saints to cover 6.5 points against the Cards. The Saints lost outright. Detroit at Giants � 10 (44): Do not get overly euphoric over the Lions’ 38-point blowout win last week against the Rams. Those were the Rams; this week it is not the Rams. The Giants appear to be coming together as a team and it seems to be the defense that is leading the coalescence. If that is the case, the Lions are in big trouble because the defense the Giants showed last week - and the week before that � could hold the Lions to10 points. Meanwhile, the Lions’ defense is not likely to hold the Giants under 20 points. I like the Giants to win and cover at home. New Orleans � 4 at Tampa Bay (43): The aura of invincibility the Saints carried around last year is gone. The 2010 season has shown that the Saints can be beaten and that it really is possible to play the Saints for a full 4 quarters without giving up 30+ points. The Tampa defense is improving quickly and would probably love to demonstrate the progress they have made in the past year or so; the Tampa offense is still a work-in-progress but they are not the embarrassment they were at the beginning of the 2009 season. Two elements of the Saints’ game have diminished so far this season; the defense no longer scores points on its own or hands the ball to the offense with a ridiculously short field to play and the Saints do not run the ball particularly well this year to keep defenses from focusing almost exclusively on pass defense. The Bucs are +180 on the money line; I think that is worth a shot. I also like the Bucs with the points at home and I like the game to stay Under. General Comments: San Diego Chargers The Redskins are having a “Homecoming” this weekend. Former Skins’ players will be on hand as Russ Grimm gets his Hall of Fame ring. [Grimm has the day off because the Cardinals have their bye week.] Some of the luminaries who will attend will be Larry Brown, Pat Fischer, Sam Huff and Sonny Jurgensen. So, which team is the biggest underachiever so far this season? Dallas Cowboys Seattle at Chicago � 7 (38.5): Pardon me for asking, but who will be the Bears’ QB this week? Todd Collins was awful in relief of Jay Cutler two weeks ago; Todd Collins was even worse than that last week. If Collins is the QB, this game could wind up 9-6 either way. If Jay Cutler starts and plays with any hesitation, the Bears could be in for some trouble that way too. Meanwhile,Cheap sports jerseys, the Bears’ defense should be able to control whatever passes for a Seahawks’ offense this week. There are way too many unknowns here to make a reasonable projection, but since I have to make a pick now, I’ll take the game Under. The Green Bay Packers are a M*A*S*H unit. They lost two tight ends and a middle linebacker last week to add to their injury woes. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers suffered a minor concussion on one of the final plays of the game. I liked the Lions laying 3 points against the Rams. The Lions covered by a mile. (Mon Nite) Tennessee � 3 at Jax (45): Here are two yo-yo teams. If you can figure which one will be up and which one will be down this week, you will have a blowout win for your side of the ledger. Jax tends to play well against teams in their division who are better than they are. The Titans come and go like the tides. I am flipping a coin here in Curmudgeon Central and the coin says to take the Titans and lay the points. Why not… I liked the Browns/Falcons to stay Under 41. It stayed Under. But don’t get me wrong, I love sports… Going into last week’s Raiders game, the Chargers offense ranked #1 in the league and the Chargers defense also ranked #1 in the league. Meanwhile, their record was 2-2. Folks, that is not an easy trifecta to hit. And with “Never Nervous” Norval at the helm, it is not likely that the Chargers will have the Fear of the Lord instilled into them over this kind of bedwetting… Cleveland at Pittsburgh � 13.5 (37.5): This is another of the very interesting games this weekend based entirely on the return of Ben Roethlisberger to the Steelers’ lineup. How much rust does he have on his game? How long will it take to shake the rust off? The Browns’ defense has been what has kept them competitive in games so far; can it keep the game close here? On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defense has been dominating thusfar and a Browns’ attack led by either Seneca Wallace and/or Jake Delhomme ought not to be able to score a lot. I think this game will be a blow-out because I think the Steelers’ defense will set a tone in this game that the Browns cannot answer. I’ll take the Steelers to win and cover here. And it will not surprise me to see that the Browns do not score an offensive TD in the game. KC at Houston � 4 (44.5): This game is a crapshoot. Are the Chiefs the team that showed itself in Games 1-3 this season or the team that soiled the sheets last week against the Colts? The Texans’ defense has been mediocre at best all year long, but which Texans’ offense is the real one and which is a mirage? I think that the Chiefs more resemble the team that showed itself last week than the team that won the first three games of the year. I still don’t know who or what the Texans are, but whatever they are sure seems to be better than what the Chiefs showed last week. I would probably take the Texans and lay the points even if the game were in KC, but since it is in Houston, I will definitely take the Texans to win and cover. “After listener complaints,nfl sales, the Buffalo Bills canceled a radio ad by an infidelity website whose motto is, ‘Life Is Short, Have An Affair.’ I’ve seen the Bills play. Their motto should be, ‘Life Is Short, Find A Decent Quarterback.’ “ Actually, that is not all that is wrong in Buffalo. Last week for the fourth straight week, the Bills allowed the opponent to score 30+ points. Last week it was the Jaguars � no less � that put on the scoring show. The Bills stink. There just is no polite way to say that. Cincinnati Bengals I liked the Redskins +2.5 against the Packers. The Skins won straight up. The NFL marketing folks probably had to be restrained from calling this weekend something like NFL Fan Appreciation Weekend because the teams not playing this week are the Bengals, Bills, Cardinals and Panthers. [Nota Bene: I will wait until the Panthers return from their bye week to see if it is time to start calling them the Pantloads again…] These four teams take a combined record of 5-15 with them to the sidelines this week. I suspect they shall not be missed… I liked the Panthers +2 against the Bears. The Bears covered easily. Indy Colts The Denver Broncos passed for 300+ yards last weekend against the Ravens; that was the fourth consecutive game where the Broncos threw for more than 300 yards. Lest anyone think that is universally a good thing, the Broncos lost last weekend by 2 TDs… I liked the Chargers/Raiders to go Over 44. They went Over. San Diego � 8.5 at St. Louis (44.5): What the Chargers probably need is some kind of accountability to descend on the locker room - - the coaching equivalent of a Size 10-EEE suppository. Norv Turner is precisely NOT the coach to deliver that kind of “message” to the team. So, the question remains, when will the talent resident on the Chargers’ roster deign to express itself? The Chargers have the better roster here. The Rams have a young team that won a couple of games and then were disemboweled by the Lions last week. If the Rams bring anger/resolution to the field Sunday and the Chargers play the way they did last week, the Rams will win this game straight up. If the Chargers bring their A-Game, the Rams have no chance. Purely a hunch here - - since I have no way to read the minds or either squad - - but I’ll take the Rams at home with the points. The Cardinals got 3 defensive TDs to beat the Saints last week. Last year, the Saints defense was the one scoring TDs and putting the offense in super field position about three times a game. That is not happening in New Orleans this year and it probably has not all that much to do with the defensive scheme or the players. Last year, the Saints defense scored 9 TDs � more than one every other game. That is not common and there is this statistical property called “regression to the mean”. In simple terms is means that when an event with a historical probability of X occurs far more frequently than X in one time period, there will come another time period when it occurs far less frequently - - so that the average is maintained. I suspect the Saints are dealing with that about now. SF 49ers My vote here would be for the Cowboys simply because of how poorly they have looked in their losses. But I agree that you can make a reasonable and sound case for any team on this list. As per usual, I shall begin with a recap of last week’s comments/picks: I said the Vikings acquisition of Randy Moss was a desperate gamble on the part of the team. Given the way things unfolded on Monday night, it looks as if the gamble might not pay off well. (Sun Nite) Indy � 3 at Washington (43.5): If the Redskins are going to win this game, they will have to find a way to pressure Peyton Manning such that he cannot pick their secondary apart. However, if they have to resort to lots of goofy blitz packages to do that, he will dissect those blitzes as if he was sitting back there with no rush at all. If the Redskins are going to win this game, they will have to run the ball well against a really suspect Colts’ rush defense. The absence of Clinton Portis actually helps them do that because Portis’ backups are better than he is at this stage of his career and with him out of the game, he cannot go into diva mode and make a mess of the sidelines and locker room. I like the Colts to win and cover on the road here and I like this game to go Over. Baltimore at New England � 3 (44.5): There are other games this weekend with very interesting storylines, but this is probably the best game on the field for the weekend. The Pats have had a full week of practice to adapt to the subtraction of Randy Moss and if there is an opponent in the NFL for whom Randy Moss is “minimally important”, it would have to be the Ravens. They just do not tend to give up big passing plays down the field and that is the essence of what Randy Moss brings to the stadium on Sunday. I think this will be a defensive struggle and I’ll take the game to stay Under. The Games: Again this week, these picks come from early lines and without the “benefit” of injury reports simply because I will not have time to do these later this week. The 1972 Dolphins got to drink their champagne early this year when the Chiefs lost last Sunday. Because it happened so early, that did not focus much attention at all on those old attention-whores. My guess is the champagne did not taste nearly as good this year… I liked the Jets/Vikes to go Over 38.5. The game went Over. With a miserable 5-10 record last week, it should be crystal clear that no one should take any information here as authoritative with regard to what side of an NFL wager one should take - - particularly if said wager might involve risking something of real value. Anyone doing that would suffer from a condition politely described as a cranio-colonic compaction. Miami at Green Bay (no lines): There are a boatload of unknowns about this game - - the most important of which is who will play QB for the Packers. Whilst the Packers were losing to the Redskins and losing at least a few starters to injury, the Dolphins had the week off. Green Bay has not been stopping the run well this year and one thing the Dolphins can bring to any game is a power running game with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. If Matt Flynn has to start and play the whole game, I think Miami wins handily here - - maybe by as much as 12-14 points. Even if Aaron Rodgers plays, he needs at least one of his top tight ends (Jermichael Finley or Donald Lee) to return to the field too just to keep this game close. Another way the game might be close would be for an early appearance of “The … Frozen … Tundra … Of … Lambeau … Field.” But if you believe Al Gore, that just isn’t going to happen… |
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